The Sarvis 10%

IMG_2184As Virginia approaches its November 5th election, activists are pondering all sorts of questions.  Will Ken Cuccinelli launch a surprise comeback to become the state’s next governor?  Will the Democratic Party sweep the three statewide offices for the first time since 1989?  Will Mark Obenshain win the attorney general’s race, proving to be the one bright spot for the Republican Party on Election Day?  However, one question that will also have a lasting impact on Virginia politics is, will Robert Sarvis meet or exceed the 10% mark?

For some, this last question might sound a bit odd.  Isn’t who wins or loses the election the only important factor?  What difference does it make if Sarvis gets 1%, 5%, 10%, or even 15%?  Well, if Robert Sarvis captures at least 10% of the vote, that means that Virginia would now have three major recognized political parties, the Democrats, Republicans, and the Libertarians.  For the Libertarians, this switch would mean easier ballot access.  For example, although the Libertarians nominated Sarvis by convention in April (similar to how the Republican nominated Cuccinelli in May), the Libertarians were under the additional burden of being required to collect at least 10,000 signatures from registered voters to actually get Sarvis on November’s ballot.  For a smaller party, like the Libertarians, this effort meant considerable manpower and funding.  If Sarvis gets 10% or more, should the Libertarians nominate a candidate via convention for the 2014 Senate race, they would be free from this task, at least for the next several years.

With these thoughts in mind, will Sarvis make 10%?  Recent polls indicate that he could, but many activists are skeptical.  That being said, fellow blogger Shaun Kenney of Bearing Drift stated today on Facebook that Sarvis will reach the 10% threshold.  Anyone else care to offer their predictions?

5 Replies to “The Sarvis 10%”

    1. only if it’s super low turnout. How many votes would Sarvis have to win in order to break 10.
      Remember Russ Potts got 40,000 votes and that equaled 2.2%
      Johnson got a grand total of 32,000 and that equaled less then a percentage ( with near full turnout) History suggests Sarvis won’t break 10.
      His support is more of a “screw the other guys”

  1. 3%-5% would be a tremendous showing for a Third Party in Virginia, and I think at this point Sarvis will get at least that.
    Third Parties tend to see their vote results cut in half on election day. Coleman was polling fairly high in 94 but only got 11%.
    The Libertarian candidate in NJ in 09 was polling 10% but ended up with 5, in any event 3-5 would still be a victory considering how little money Sarvis spent.

  2. Because of his boldness for ending the state income tax, legalizing marijuana and privatizing ABC stores, I will be casting my vote for Sarvis. It is time for a viable third party in Virginia.

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