Letters from Nancy

This past week or so, my inbox box has been abuzz with emails from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Speaker Nancy Pelosi.  The interesting thing is that the Democrats have been consistently writing that they will maintain their majority after the November election.  As Pelosi writes, “We will retain our Democratic Majority in the House because I have you in this fight”.  Now obviously she doesn’t have my backing, and I would expect the Democrats to suffer a strong backlash in these midterm elections in protest of Obamacare, a continually faltering and protracted conflict far beyond our borders, and the general weakness of the economy and the job market.

The historical trend is that the party in the White House will lose seats in both houses of Congress in midterm elections.  For example, when did the Democrats most recently gain control of Congress?  2006, during the middle of Bush’s second term.  After a forty-year drought, Republicans took control of the House of Representatives during Clinton’s first mid term in 1994.  Although there are exceptions, there have only been three times in the last one hundred years that have bucked this trend.  In the current cycle, according to Rasmussen Reports, Republicans have enjoyed a small, but uninterrupted, advantage on a generic ballot since June 28 of last year.   In addition, they report that the number of folks who identify themselves as Democrats have fallen to record lows.

Republicans will make gains in next months election, of that I am certain.  However, I am not unwilling to make the claim that this upcoming election will be a “slam dunk” for the Republican Party, nor do I think it necessarily should be.  Voters are in general fed up with politics and usual and until and unless one party (the Republicans) is consistently willing to stand for the Constitution and a limited government, the government will continually vacillate between the two parties, casting each aside in turn as they hope for something better.  We must reject politicians like Pelosi who claim first priority over our income, our general welfare, and even our children.  I don’t know who will be speaker after the November election, but given her very low popularity, 59% negative according to a yesterday’s Rasmussen Reports, I would expect that both Nancy’s reign and her letters are soon coming to an end.

2 Replies to “Letters from Nancy”

  1. Hey, Joshua! I enjoy reading your postings but have not commented as of yet because I’m a hardworking businessman. But this one seems worthy of a few brief points, in hopes of pushing you a little harder as you shape your next posting. (insert friendly smile emoticon here)

    Your historical examples of parties having trouble in midterm elections are solid — so I’m perplexed as to the length you go to justify coming GOP gains. Americans have shown over and over again that they want balance and checked power in DC — even to the point of gridlock. Voters seem about to ask for gridlock again, even though it cuts directly against their own economic self-interest.

    So no need to double down on the flimsy arguments coming out of the mouths of very dubious GOP candidates. There are more and more stories surfacing of GOP candidates ducking any kind of real questioning from the press or the public (here’s one from Politico today: it doesn’t matter if you’ve paid prostitutes, all you have to do is stand up and yell against Obama http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43120.html). There’s no real policy argument going on, here — the GOP is banking almost completely of being the party that is not Obama.

    So, no need to claim that Nancy will lose her job because of:
    * “protest of Obamacare” (except that national mainstream polls have consistently shown that complete opposition to any kind of healthcare insurance reform is a sub-40 percent number)
    * “a continually faltering and protracted conflict far beyond our borders” (which one? The one Bush started in Afghanistan and abandoned before it was done, or the one Cheney started in Iraq based on a pack of lies?? How on earth does Obama get smacked for those, when he actually HAS drawn down troop levels in Iraq??)
    * “and the general weakness of the economy and the job market.” (which again is a hole left us by the GOP policies — Bush’s 8 years in office got a net job gain of ZERO, and the economy Obama inherited was in free fall; I’m pretty sure you remember those days; it was in all the papers)

    All you have to say is: there is a hardcore group of angry, older, Christian, predominantly-Appalachian voters in the U.S. who are confused and angry by the way the world looks in 2010, and they are going to show up in droves. If no one else shows up in November, GOP wins.

    1. Thank you for your comment. I hope that it will be the first of many.

      It is an increasing trend that politicians state that they are against a person or party without ever defining their own positions. It is happening now with Obama as it did with Bush. Is it that politicians are too crafty, the public too ignorant or apathetic, or that there are no other choices? Sadly, I believe it to be some combination of the three.

      As for foreign policy, I do appreciate the withdrawal from Iraq, but what about Afghanistan? With each body bag that returns home, public opinion will continue to shift away from this quagmire. What is the Afghan timetable, exit strategy, or hope for victory? Like Bush, has everyone simply forgot about Bin Laden? Isn’t he, supposedly, the reason for this problem in the first place? I know Obama inherited this problem, but now that Bush is gone, it is on his shoulders to resolve quickly.

      Switching to the economy, does it really matter to this public whose policies got us into this mess? When you lose your job or your house, I maintain that the vast majority will blame the current administration.

      I understand what you mean by your last point, and even though I myself live just outside the Appalachia region, I expect we will see GOP gains throughout the country, not just in that area.

      So what are your predictions? Will the Democratic Party hold the House and Senate? Will Pelosi remain Speaker?

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