This morning, Andy Schmookler and I had our monthly appearance on 550 AM WSVA.
In the past, we have been told that the subjects of guns and abortion are off limits for discussion. Therefore, I was caught off guard when, before going on the air today, we were informed that we would be starting off the show talking about firearms and the 2nd Amendment due to the recent school shootings in Florida.
Although that issue took up most of the time in the show, we also spoke briefly about the situation in the Middle East including the corruption charges against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the potential for greater conflict in an almost constantly volatile region. Last, was the issue of Mitt Romney’s run for the U.S. Senate representing the state of Utah and whether or not he would stand up to Donald Trump if Romney were elected.
For those who didn’t catch the story, on December 28th, I wrote a piece called The Virginia Republican Pravda. It examines some of the content of the website called The Republican Standard which was highly favorable toward Ed Gillespie and Kirk Cox. Normally, this type of thing wouldn’t be much of an issue, but when you also consider their lack of disclosure regarding sponsorship payment from the 2017 Ed Gillespie for Governor campaign as well as Virginia House Speaker Kirk Cox’s PAC, it raises a bunch of red flags regarding any hope for honest and objective news coming from this site.
Bob Goodlatte will not be the 6th Congressional district representative for the first time since 1992. Hardly news, but since I was two years old when he took office, this is a brave new world for me and many others. The 6th is considered one of the safest Republican seats in the country, and as such, it is very likely that the Republican convention decides who gets the seat. As of the time of writing, there are currently eight Republican candidates. However, given the candidate is selected by convention, I highly doubt the five least connected candidates: Ed Justo, Mike Desjadon, Elliot Pope, Doug Wright, and Kathryn Lewis really have a chance for a Congressional seat. Let us then consider the three main candidates:
Mr. Haywood is the current Rockingham-Harrisonburg Clerk of Court. Mr. Haywood seems to be the establishment choice, having gotten the Obenshain endorsement, as well as the endorsement of Georgia Long (former 6th District RPV State Central Representative). Unfortunately, not much is known about Mr. Haywood. He hasn’t had a whole lot of public activity to really flesh out his positions beyond campaign platitudes. He served as a representative for both Mr. Goodlatte and former Governor George Allen. His website is full of well-worn phrases about “putting people first” and “standing with veterans.” Predictably, he plans to “stand with President Trump in his efforts to improve business and job growth, protecting our manufacturing jobs here and working to bring back jobs lost overseas.” However, substantive policy issues are noticeably lacking.
The convention will be held May 19th at the JMU convocation center in Harrisonburg. At the moment the convention will be single ballot plurality, rather than a multi-ballot majority. This is subject to change, but this seems to favor Dunbar. Dunbar, seen as an outsider, could mirror Trump’s own rhetoric of “draining the swamp.” The plurality would mean she would not need to go through the strenuous process of deal-making that normally goes into finding a majority approved candidate. The convention process also lends itself to more conservative candidates. The 6th district is, by-and-large, Trump country. Predominantly Caucasian, with lower rates of higher education, large numbers of unemployed and underemployed blue-collar workers, and a sizeable evangelical population all seem to point towards an advantage for Dunbar. However, as we’ve seen in Alabama and other elections, the independents and conservatives that have traditionally voted for the GOP candidates are not turning out for radicals such as Dunbar. Additionally, they inspire Democrats to vote in near-record numbers. We do not know for certain if this trend will continue, and even if it does, the 6th is notoriously safe and the Democrats are fielding two new-comers to challenge for the seat. But the GOP should be wary before unleashing a firebrand like Dunbar.
Kevin Stiles is a resident of the Shenandoah Valley in Luray, VA. He attended Bridgewater College where he got a degree in History and Political Science.